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| TTP leaders pledge allegiance to ISIS. |
The chief
spokesperson for Pakistani Taliban (TTP), Shahidullah Shahid, and five other TTP
commanders pledged allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October
last year, giving rise to fears that there may be an increase in popularity for
ISIS in Pakistan. The tribal areas in north-west Pakistan have historically
been seen as a hotbed for militant groups and the strength and popularity of
the Taliban in the area suggests an enthusiasm for hard-line Islamic ideology. With
that in mind, it is perhaps worrying that key members of the Pakistani Taliban
have now decided to align themselves with ISIS instead. The question here is:
whether the move represents a current of support for ISIS in the region or
whether it is merely representative of the fragmentation of the TTP?
Certainly,
since the death of TTP leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, in a drone strike last year,
the group has appeared to be more divided and lacking in leadership. There has
been an increase in desertions and the government offensive, Zarb-e-Azb, has
had notable successes against them, including the destruction of their economic
base in North Waziristan. The Peshawar school attack in December may be seen in
this light as an act of desperation from the Pakistani Taliban. These factors
coupled with the success of ISIS mean that the change in allegiance of key
members of the TTP is not necessarily a worrying phenomenon and may be
explained by the TTP’s demise.
ISIS itself,
however, announced on January 11th its organisational structure for
‘Khorasan’ (Afghanistan and Pakistan) with a former TTP leader, Hafez Saaed
Khan at its head. The announcement included Shahidullah Shahid as a
spokesperson and several other ex-TTP leaders and showed the beheading of what
is thought to be a Pakistani soldier. Shahid then called on followers to
“prepare for the great tribulations they will face”. The implementation of this
organisational structure and reference to preparation for the future shows the
potential for future activities in the country. The threat of ISIS in Pakistan
may therefore be growing and it is a threat that should not be ignored.
In a country
with over 200 religious organisations and a history (at least in the tribal
areas) of extremist militant groups, the climate in Pakistan may be conducive. ISIS
Leaflets have been distributed across the country in the last year, which could
be read as fairly innocuous but it seems to suggest that there is at least some
support for the group and indeed, that there has been some effort from ISIS (or
its supporters) to promote the group in Pakistan. The financial and territorial
success of ISIS far exceeds that of any other extremist group in the Middle
East, so it seems probable that it will absorb smaller, less successful groups that
don’t have the same, organised leadership structure - as recent defection by
key TTP members demonstrates.
The National
Security and Foreign Affairs Adviser, Sartaj Aziz, said recently that “Islamic
State is not a major threat. It is not a serious problem for Pakistan”. His
view is founded on the belief that the threat of ISIS will remain in the tribal
areas where Pakistan have significant military operations in place to combat it.
In saying this, he has effectively likened the threat of ISIS to that of the
other militant groups in the tribal areas. This is an oversight: the rapid
expansion and organisational structure of ISIS give it the potential to bring
different factions together and provide a greater, more united threat than is
currently seen in the region. Not only that but the current success of
government forces in tribal areas may mean that there are more militants in
search of strong leadership and direction; this is something ISIS are perceived
to able to provide. Perhaps the greatest fear then is that the Pakistani
government have overlooked the potential seriousness of this threat.
