This is the Next Century Foundation's Pakistan blog. The aim of the NCF is to promote the resolution of conflict and to assist in reconciliation efforts. We bring together opinion formers in an informal atmosphere where confidentiality can be maintained. The NCF works with individuals who share a common vision; a climate of order and security that can enable the pursuit of peace and reconciliation with justice. We also have a special interest in media issues.
Thursday, May 22, 2014
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Pakistan - Afghan relations
The Pakistani government is attempting to impose
greater control over its western borders with Afghanistan.
In a recent interview, Pakistan’s top national security
advisor, Sartaj Aziz commented that Pakistani and Afghan security officials
will meet to discuss cross-border movements between the two states. Aziz also
stated that Islamabad will begin issuing special passes to people from the
border region to facilitate their cross-border movements and will expedite the
visa process for Afghans.
"Even now we issue 1,000 or 2,000 visas to the
Afghans everyday," he said. "This is a process and we will know the
outline of the new border management once Afghanistan and Pakistan work out its
details. We cannot let this border remain porous.”
Afghanistan has never formally recognized the Durand Line
as an international border. The Durand line was created in 1947 when the state
of Pakistan was founded and has been a constant cause for tensions. Pakistan has
frequently been accused of violating the border because it hosts Afghan insurgents.
Kabul and Islamabad often accuse each other of sheltering insurgents.
Whilst there are most certainly insurgents residing on both sides of the
border, the reality of the situation is that it is highly likely that neither government
is supporting these groups given the authorities have little or no control of
the region.
Border management and cooperation between the two
countries might lessen cross-border attacks and restrict any liaisons between Taliban
insurgents on both sides of the border. The importance of co-operative
security strategy has been highlighted by the increase in violence in Pakistan
in the last year, largely along the Durand Line. There were 1,717 terrorist
attacks in 2013 (a 9% increase on 2012), that resulted in the deaths of 2,451
people (a 19% increase) and the injuries of 5,438 (a 42% increase).
With the handover of Afghanistan looming, there are
serious concerns that we will see a Taliban takeover as soon as NATO turns its back. Hence
peace talks between Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Afghan President Karzai
are important.
As
Afghanistan faces monumental challenges in rebuilding its civil society, India
needs to improve relations and cooperate with Pakistan to maintain relative peace in the region.
Thursday, August 22, 2013
The execution of Zulfikar Bhutto, the indictment of Musharraf and changing attitudes in Pakistan
The indictment on Tuesday of Pervez Musharraf is the first
time in Pakistan
that a former army chief has had charges brought against him.
The indictment comes as a great surprise in many ways. It is
a sign of a new attitude from the civilian administration towards military men
such as Musharraf who have been previously too powerful to take on.
The military is still a dominant force in Pakistani
politics. Many commentators thought that Nawaz Sharif would be unwilling to risk
alienating the current military commanders by prosecuting their former
colleague. Even now, it is possible that the charges will remain symbolic
rather than having any real effect. There is also the possibility of a return
to exile for Musharraf, to avoid any concrete decision having to be made.
But the pursuit of the trial by the government is a sign of
changing attitudes.
This will most likely not end in a convenient exile. The number
of other charges brought against Musharraf did not allow him to run for
election as he had planned to. Clearly when he decided to return he did not comprehend
the scale of the case that would be brought against him. The charge of treason has
raised the stakes significantly - as a capital offence it carries a possible
death sentence. It suggests that the government and the prosecutors really are
going after this prosecution.
The recent Abbottabad Commission report into the death of
Osama bin Laden published findings which condemned Pakistan as ‘’a failing state’’.
Widespread corruption, apathy and incompetence are all highlighted in the
report. The roles of the military and particularly the ISI are criticized in
the report, with both acting well beyond their remit in civilian affairs.
This pitiable state of the government’s administration is
due to long-term military rule. Because of this history, the country does not
possess the developed, vibrant, democratic institutions which are needed for an
effective democratic government.
The zeal of the pursuit of Musharraf is a step towards
setting in place these democratic institutions and establishing an attitude of
the culpability of military strongmen. It is a sign of this civilian government
showing the military they are not untouchable.
Musharraf’s lawyers have claimed that the indictment amounts
to selective justice and ignores others complicit in his crimes. They do so in
the knowledge that many of those who would have to be charged alongside him are
currently serving in the government and military and it would be virtually
impossible to bring charges against them all. The prosecution of Musharraf then
could be a warning to those others; that things in Pakistan are changing; and that
even if it is failing, the civilian government has not failed yet.
The execution of Bhenazir Bhutto’s father, Zulfikar, offers
interesting comparisons to the current situation with Musharraf. The former
leader was charged with murdering political opponents and then summarily
executed by the military regime. This came after a prolonged and dubiously
handled appeal process.
The civilian administrator being punished unjustly by the
succeeding military government has now become the military leader being prosecuted
by the succeeding civilian government.
This is not to say that Musharraf is innocent in the same
way as Zulfikar (probably) was. Musharraf should be brought to justice for all
the crimes committed during his rule. Nor is it to say that the pursuit of
Musharraf’s trial by the current government is as clearly legally dubious and
un-transparent as the military regime’s handling of the Bhutto trial and
execution was. But make of the comparison what you will. The two cases are
worth considering next to each other.
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Barack Obama: Judge, Jury and Executioner
The continued drone strikes in
Pakistan have angered many Pakistan civilians as well as angering diplomats. Wajid Shamsul Hasan the High Commissioner to London has claimed
the US drone strikes on Pakistan are undermining Pakistan’s sovereignty and
weakening democracy in a “violation of territory”. Hasan also realises that
Pakistan has no real power to try to stop the drone strikes from the US unless
public opinion throughout the world is against the strikes. The strikes have
been deadly in Pakistan and to the US’s credited it has wiped out a large
number of militants in Pakistan. However the number of civilians killed doesn’t
justify the drones use. Including the civilian deaths the missiles have also
killed a number of Pakistani soldiers. One of the main arguments against the
use of drones is that all the civilian deaths, creates more militants for the
groups you are trying to wipe out by leaving victims’ families with a resentment of the west and NATO. Hasan also said that “the drone
strikes won’t end extremism, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in general”. The goal of
winning hearts and minds cannot be won by using drones.
The effect this could have on the
American elections is also substantial. The liberals in America cannot be
satisfied with an Obama administration that claims peace but practices anything
but. The liberals however will also not vote for a gaffe prone conservative
republican like Mitt Romney. This leaves liberals with only one option, to not
vote for either. This will affect the result of the election as many
election pundits view the result as those who do not vote will decide the
outcome of the election which will be many liberals due to Obama’s stance on
Pakistan.
The outcome of the drone strike
which killed 24 Pakistani soldiers, was for Pakistan to demand an end to drone
strikes and for the NATO supply line into Afghanistan to be closed for a
duration of time until the Americans conducted an investigation. The effect this had on NATO troops was worse
than NATO would have cared to admit however the effects were bad. The actions
of the Obama administration on Pakistan have been labelled Terror Tuesday
meetings where President Obama will decide with CIA chiefs who should be
targeted in drone strikes and most likely eventually killed. How any liberal
will vote for Obama in the next election is beyond me.
Pakistan must be able to remove
Taliban and Al-Qaeda using their own methods, they will get help from NATO and
the US. To show the world that droning must stop they must take a more active
role in trying to stop these groups. How Obama sleeps at night is beyond me.
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